The bar is higher for Democrats


Andrew Gelman (a fellow statistician) and colleagues analyze the probability that the Democrats will retake the House. He has a few interesting insights about the past few elections as well. Remember that Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college vote in 2000? There’s been a similar phenomenon in congressional candidates in most elections since 1994. At any rate, realize that the linked article is a bit heavy on the statistics, but you should be able to get the gist.

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